– RUSSIA’S INTERVENTION – A NEW MIDDLE EAST
Syria is no longer the state we knew for seven decades in the Middle East. The country is totally destroyed, about a third of its 28 Millions citizens fled the country or killed, an internal wave of displaced and ethnic cleansing divided Syria to about 80% of Sunni controlled territories and about 20% non-Sunni areas were Alawites, Christians from all churches, Druze and other sects try to defend themselves,with Bashar Assad’s regime from extinction by ISIS. The partition of what was once Syria is now a political reality. Those two ex-Syrian identities are hostile to each other but both are exhausted and locked in an ongoing bitter deadlock unable to overcome each other .
Russia (and USA) has bitter memories and lessons from Afghanistan fighting an endless guerilla war in an hostile environment with on prospect to ever bring the war to an end. In Latakia, Syria, the situation is very different, Russian forces are welcomed as the last resort and saviors of the Syrian Minorities and Assad’s controlled areas. As long as the Russians limits themselves to save Assad’s regime the move actually fixes the final partition of Syria, and the beginning of a long war of a broad undelivered coalition of different interests to wear out and to irdicate, at end of the process, the Islamic State. Will Russia try to push the Jihadists out from Syria and regain the country for Bashar Assad they faces a new “Afghanistan Scenario” eventually with the same results .
Russia has several goals in its recent military build up in Syria’s Latakia.
A. To save Assad’s Alawite Regime as a proxy of Russia and to enhance the relations with Iran
B To emphasize that Russia, unlike USA, stays behind its allies as long as they stay with Russia .
C. To establish a military lasting presence in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean for their regional political position, a base of support for its allies and to take advantage on the political vacuum USA is leaving behind after the Iraq War, Egypt’s revolution and Libya’s anarchy.
D, to form a “bargaining space” over the Ukrainian conflict in which coordination with Russia in Syria is depended and related to the Ukrainian crisis and the sanctions on Russia.
To sum it up : .
1. Russia, Assad’s Regime, the Syrian minorities and in some extent the surviving Arab States are benefiting from the recent Russian move.
2. The partition of Syria to an Alawite State named “Syria” and to a chaotic Sunni region controlled mainly by the Islamic State is a political reality for the next few decades (so in Iraq). Bothe identities will be locked in an ongoing religious conflict for years to come.
4. The Islamic State and alike, like Jabhat al-Nusra, lost their strategic offensive momentum and now enter a long period of strategic defence.
5. Ukraine is to lose some of its international political support and is the big loser of the Russian move.
6. Iran, after the Nuclear deal and the Russian alliance upgraded its position as the local power and boosted the anxiety of the Sunnis in the Middle East..
7. Russia risks a surge in Islamic insurgency in the country, especially in the Caucasus .
8.. Now, when America is no longer depended on Middle Eastern oil and the region loses its political and economical influence and importance. USA has to redefine and recalculate its genuine interest in the new Middle East .
Related topics ;
09/2015 – WILL SYRIA AND IRAQ’S STATEHOOD SURVIVE ?
08/2015 – THE BATTLE OF LATAKIA – THE LATEST STAGE IN THE SYRIAN WAR
08/2015 – THE CURRENT STAGE OF THE MIDDLE EAST
07/2015 – U.S LACKS FULL STRATEGY !?
05/2015 – ISLAMIC STATE OVERSHADOWS THE MIDDLE EAST