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LEBANON DEMOGRAPHY
 Lebanon is an independent state since 1943. The pact of 1934 divided the political power between Christians, 55% and non Christians 45%. The country managed itself in fragile and delicate balance between the different communities in Lebanon. That balance is going down to the lowest ranks of the Lebanese civil service and army and was defined by the relations between Christians and non Christians.
Since over time dramatic demographic changes took place in Lebanon and the Christians became minority rather then majority the Lebanese system became unsuitable and was challenged by the Muslim majority. Only after a bitter civil war, which breached out in 1976 and lasted over a decade, a new balance was agreed upon in 1989 in Taef Saudi Arabia. According to the Taef Agreement The Christians and the Muslims as a whole will share the political power in Lebanon fifty fifty so they can veto each other.
During the civil war many Christians and Sunni Muslims fled the country. When the Taef agreement was signed it was already of little relevancy to the demographic changes in Lebanon since the Shiaa community, within the Muslim community, became the majority of the Lebanese population although, under the Taef agreement, they shared only less then 20% of the seats in the Parliament - 24 out of 128.
Today (09/2009) 66% of the Lebanese population are Shiites with only 20% of the official political power, while the Christians, only 16% of the general population, still hold 50% of the political power and can veto any decision. The Lebanese politic is no longer defined by the relations between Christians and non Christians but between Shiites and non Shiites.
Indeed, in the last elections in Lebanon, in 06/2009, although Hizbullah and his supporters suffered a setback the fact remains that the popular majority was Shiaa voters (LEBANON 09 Elections).
In this situation there are few options: A. To change the political system so that the Shiaa population can express itself as individual citizens. B. To give the Shiaa community a veto power in the decision making of Lebanon as it was, actually, agreed upon in the Doha Agreement from 05/10/2008; C. To face a political stand off and a new power struggle about the political system of Lebanon that could lead to a new civil war. D. A formation of a Shiaa state within the framework of so called Lebanon, which is, actually, the current situation, with the state within the state formed by the Shiaa Hizbullah in Lebanon and already controls more then half of the Lebanese territories.
No wonder therefore that the leader of the pro-Western alliance in Lebanon, Saad Hariri, said, on Thursday 09/10/2009, he was to abandon his attempt to form a national unity government. Saad Hariri spent more than 10 weeks trying to get the majority and minority factions to agree on a cabinet line-up but refused, backed by the Americans and the Saudis, to enable the Hizbullah to veto the cabinet decision making.
Lebanon will not sustain a political stability without addressing its unsuitable political system and recognizing the fact that the Shiites are the large majority of Lebanon.
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11/09/2009 06:52:43
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