BUSH'S LAST YEAR IN OFFICE
The last USA Nation Intelligence assessment, a combined assessment of all 16 intelligence apparatus in US, published on 12/03/2007, claimed that Iran had, probably, not restarted a nuclear weapons programme that it allegedly had until 2003. The report plays down any early threat of an IRANIAN nuclear weapon and suggests the government in Tehran is not trying to develop nuclear weapons in the present.
On the other hand, the same report specifically said that Iran made "significant progress" in 2007 installing gas centrifuges used to enrich uranium - a process necessary for producing the nuclear material needed to build a nuclear bomb.
In fact all the controversy with Iran is about enriching uranium. Once Iran has the 95% enriched Uranium, the other components of an Atomic bomb can be assembled within three months.
The report was published in correspondence with the Gulf Cooperation Council – GCC convention in Qatar where, for the first time, Iran was invited to participate. IRANIAN President Mahmoud Ahmadinajed said, in his first ever appearance in GCC: “Gulf states and Iran should work together toward establishing regional security and economic pacts free of foreign intervention”.
Therefore, the Intelligence report says nothing except that USA
decided to push aside, at least temporarily, the possibility of using military power, and is willing to cooperate with Russia
and other countries in a diplomatic and economical attitude toward Iran
The report also enables to postpone or delay, for a few years, the deployment of American missiles defense system in Eastern Europe that was described, initially, as necessary to protect Europe from Iranian possible missiles attack and cause a crisis with Russia.
Giving the fact that temporary ceasefire was declared by
the “Mahdi Army”
in Baghdad on 08/29/2007 and the restraint of other Shiite militias under Iran influence in Iraq
, suggests that USA and Iran are negotiating, iIndirectly, a comprehensive deal on the base of “More calm in Iraq – more time for Iran”. (see - IRANIAN foreign-policy )
It seems that President Bush is determined, iIn the last year of his administration, to minimize the conflicts, to ease the international tensions, to try to put aside the Iraqi problem that characterizes his administration and to fill the political vacuum and the media headlines with the hopes of a new peace process – although somehow a virtual one.
The real problems will wait for the next administration.
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